← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.57 | value: +6% |
| Maritimo win | 21% | 22% | 4.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1443.43 | 1537.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.30 | -22.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 24.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |