← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 39% | 49% | 2.52 | value: +24% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 33% | 22% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1548.68 | 1491.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.95 | 4.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.34 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |