← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 36% | 29% | 2.72 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 34% | 43% | 2.87 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1442.48 | 1572.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.55 | 28.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.45 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |