← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 84% | 90% | 1.15 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 9% | 6% | 11.00 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 7% | 3% | 13.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1418.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1860.55 | 1444.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.92 | -15.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| league points | 74.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 0.83 |
| state index | 1.35 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |