← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 69% | 69% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.05 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 12% | 11% | 8.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 222.00 | 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1673.22 | 1541.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.57 | -10.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 49.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |