← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 49% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.63 | fair |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 710.00 | 1410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1931.09 | 1867.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.61 | 6.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| league points | 72.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 2.64 |
| state index | 2.06 | 1.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |