← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 49% | 49% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.47 | fair |
| Setubal win | 23% | 22% | 4.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1437.74 | 1399.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.78 | -17.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 21.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.93 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |