← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 45% | 45% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.48 | value: +6% |
| Vitória SC win | 27% | 25% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1528.19 | 1557.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.55 | 15.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |