← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 50% | 61% | 1.94 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.56 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 22% | 16% | 4.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 314.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1558.93 | 1448.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.80 | 6.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.82 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |