← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira Mar win | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 30% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1408.80 | 1546.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.50 | 6.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 20.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |