← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 74% | 62% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 20% | 5.62 | value: +13% |
| CD Nacional win | 9% | 18% | 10.75 | value: +93% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 215.00 | 703.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1545.10 | 1927.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.40 | 4.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 34.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.56 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |