← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.82 | value: +7% |
| Moreirense FC win | 20% | 20% | 4.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1443.33 | 1667.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.93 | -19.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 21.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.70 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |