← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 69% | 61% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 4.84 | value: +32% |
| Maritimo win | 11% | 11% | 8.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1398.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1550.12 | 1871.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.22 | 21.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| league points | 34.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 2.69 |
| state index | 0.09 | 2.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |