← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 49% | 38% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.65 | value: +10% |
| Vitória SC win | 24% | 32% | 4.00 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1549.30 | 1595.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.62 | 14.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 36.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |