← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 44% | 46% | 2.23 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.35 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 27% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1419.40 | 1452.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.51 | 4.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| state index | -1.19 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |