← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 90% | 88% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 9% | 12.06 | value: +6% |
| Setubal win | 2% | 3% | 43.01 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 696.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1925.96 | 1412.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.37 | -18.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 66.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.54 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.95 | -0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |