← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 39% | 42% | 2.48 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1460.01 | 1539.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.97 | 7.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 21.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |