← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 74% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.45 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 7% | 11% | 13.47 | value: +55% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 689.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1455.62 | 1922.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.52 | -4.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 21.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 2.52 |
| state index | -0.19 | 1.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |