← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 68% | 72% | 1.43 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.54 | fair |
| Academica win | 11% | 12% | 9.23 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 200.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1676.85 | 1422.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.84 | -25.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.84 |
| state index | 0.53 | -1.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |