← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 70% | 73% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.87 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 10% | 9% | 9.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 677.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1918.30 | 1681.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.70 | 12.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| league points | 60.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.79 |
| state index | 1.74 | 0.87 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |