← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 53% | 50% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.47 | value: +25% |
| Setubal win | 19% | 14% | 5.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 280.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1487.19 | 1405.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.82 | -23.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |