← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 36% | 39% | 2.70 | value: +5% |
| Academica win | 32% | 29% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1448.03 | 1430.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.90 | -27.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| state index | -1.06 | -1.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |