← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 47% | 55% | 2.08 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.46 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 25% | 24% | 3.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 182.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1695.78 | 1594.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.08 | 0.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 16.96 | 15.96 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.17 |
| state index | 1.12 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |