← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 37% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
| Setubal win | 28% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1417.32 | 1547.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.75 | 12.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |