← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 41% | 40% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.18 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 29% | 30% | 3.41 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1473.51 | 1531.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.77 | 39.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 20.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |