← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 76% | 1.35 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.13 | fair |
| Academica win | 9% | 10% | 10.83 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1455.30 | 1944.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.33 | -9.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 21.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 2.48 |
| state index | -0.88 | 1.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |