← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 52% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.52 | value: +16% |
| Moreirense FC win | 20% | 16% | 4.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 259.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1503.54 | 1446.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.10 | 10.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.77 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |