← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 67% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.58 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 11% | 13% | 8.68 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1540.44 | 1922.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.91 | -10.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 29.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.55 |
| state index | 0.23 | 1.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |