← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 63% | 64% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.34 | value: +6% |
| Setubal win | 14% | 11% | 6.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1590.38 | 1421.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.12 | 16.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 24.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |