← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 39% | 38% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 30% | 30% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1461.35 | 1575.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.26 | 8.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 18.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.77 |
| state index | -1.02 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |