← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 55% | 65% | 1.76 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.73 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 19% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 282.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1581.45 | 1413.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.16 | -22.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 38.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.71 |
| state index | 0.60 | -1.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |