← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 43% | 55% | 2.25 | value: +24% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 29% | 23% | 3.34 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 160.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1556.74 | 1500.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.13 | 6.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |