← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 39% | 45% | 2.49 | value: +11% |
| Olhanense win | 31% | 25% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1447.62 | 1459.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.07 | -22.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |