← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 83% | 91% | 1.17 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 12% | 6% | 8.02 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 4% | 3% | 21.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1348.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1850.08 | 1464.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.75 | -13.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 55.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.62 | 0.90 |
| state index | 1.58 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |