← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | value: +3% |
| Moreirense FC win | 23% | 22% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.42 | 1443.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.89 | 5.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.75 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |