← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 77% | 78% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 8% | 8% | 12.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1415.64 | 1847.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.17 | 9.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 15.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.25 | 1.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |