← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 58% | 66% | 1.69 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.90 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 17% | 13% | 5.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 640.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1586.34 | 1927.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.81 | 1.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 22.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.30 | 1.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |