← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Mon, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 39% | 42% | 2.47 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1457.25 | 1543.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.19 | 10.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |