← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.94 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 146.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1537.15 | 1475.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.66 | -11.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |