← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 72% | 79% | 1.36 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.32 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 10% | 7% | 9.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1334.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1843.29 | 1578.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.57 | 33.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| league points | 49.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 1.84 |
| state index | 1.56 | 0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |