← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 68% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.58 | value: +9% |
| Vitória SC win | 11% | 11% | 8.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 145.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1669.03 | 1537.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.69 | 6.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |