← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 83% | 1.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 11% | 6.24 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 6% | 6% | 15.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 633.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1955.38 | 1543.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.71 | 11.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 49.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 1.53 |
| state index | 2.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |