← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 39% | 34% | 2.50 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 32% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 236.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1504.47 | 1602.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.54 | -16.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |