← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 47% | 51% | 2.06 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.43 | fair |
| Setubal win | 24% | 22% | 4.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1489.62 | 1415.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.76 | -11.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |