← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 46% | 2.37 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 29% | 27% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1535.52 | 1512.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.82 | 2.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |