← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 88% | 1.19 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 7.87 | fair |
| Academica win | 6% | 3% | 17.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1327.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1841.85 | 1458.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.92 | 8.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 46.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 1.11 |
| state index | 1.52 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |