← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Fri, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 77% | 85% | 1.26 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 6.82 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 8% | 6% | 11.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1426.01 | 1923.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.41 | 3.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 15.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.56 |
| state index | -1.13 | 1.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |