← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 17% | 18% | 5.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1608.50 | 1521.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.61 | -12.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |