← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 38% | 40% | 2.56 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 31% | 28% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1404.78 | 1492.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.19 | 14.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |