← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 90% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 7% | 9.65 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 4% | 3% | 26.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 620.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1932.77 | 1480.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.32 | -7.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 45.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 0.94 |
| state index | 2.17 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |